DESIGN ITALY EDITORIAL by Ranieri: Christmas online? Not much less than last year

There are less than 100 days to Christmas, we expect a shopping spree, especially online, that will restart consumptions.

The most classic of advertising countdowns has been ticking for a while now: “Less than 100 days til Christmas”. The shopping rush has begun and, at least theoretically, should put the consumer sector in high gear in Italy. The economy has already been recovering in the wake of post-pandemic reopenings mixed with higher consumer spending over the past few months.

An analysis of the latest Confcommercio data shows mixed results. Macroeconomic forecasts for the next two years show consumer spending increasing by 4.9% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. GDP should increase by 5.9% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022. But the momentum won’t necessarily spill over to all sectors despite the boost that naturally occurs in the weeks leading up to Christmas. 

The most noteworthy trend involves the technology sector. There was a boom in technology sector revenues linked to increased time spent at home amidst government restrictions over the last (almost) two years. And a surprisingly low number of Italian consumers are prepared to do without these new advances, as shown by a recent Mastercard survey: only 1 in 3 Italians (33.6%) would be prepared to go without the technological innovations they discovered last year. 

What’s more, the technology sector also continues to influence how people shop. According to a recent Sitecore survey, 53% of Italian consumers interviewed plan to once again split their time shopping for Christmas presents equally between online and in-store purchases. And speaking of in-store shopping, 88% of younger respondents said that for them, it was important that retailers offer more products and services belonging to minorities, thus directing their spending towards niche sectors and products. And 70% of respondents said that they didn’t plan to make practical purchases but would rather spend their money on experiences.

As far as the fashion sector goes, a long stretch of recovery suggests hopes for a prosperous end to the year. A look at the first six months of the year for the main industry players shows average growth of 18% in consumption of luxury personal items, while EBITDA rose from +23% (in surveys from early 2021) to +30% (recorded a few weeks ago), driven by domestic consumption, in particular in China and the USA, and by a boom in online sales (estimates are based on a 30% share of sales through digital channels). The furniture segment is also on an upward trajectory and especially in Italy will benefit from a special “furniture tax bonus” valid until 31 December and that will likely drive spending until Christmas.

Ranieri